Download the data. 8 House popular vote, proving that Tuesday’s national environment was indeed only Republican- leaning. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. Download. An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. On Election Day 2022, Republicans had a 1. Overall, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are 68-in-100, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. 49. Download. RCP Average. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 2 Republicans currently lead by 2. The latest survey marks a decline over the past month from Democrats’ high point (49%), and a boost for the GOP from its 44% low. According to the RealClearPolitics average, the shift began a month earlier. 6 percent). 3 Trump +46. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Several of those maps are being challenged in court as illegal gerrymanders, but none seems like a serious possibility to be overturned before the midterms. House and governor. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. fit different models to predict the election outcome from generic ballot polls taken 300 days before the election, 240 days before the election, 180 days before the. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Democrats +3. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. +1. 2020 Generic Congressional Vote. In Louisiana, all candidates will appear on the November 5 primary ballot regardless of partisan affiliation. And the generic ballot. On average, across those 21 election cycles, our generic-ballot polling average on Election Day missed the House popular vote by only 3. In particular, Bafumi et al. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 42%. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 6%, Biden at 45% — in the RCP polling average. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) +2. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Jan 23 New Hampshire presidential primary election Latest news and analysis Latest news Harris tells CNN that she and Biden will ‘have to earn our reelect’. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is. Download. A Look At The Generic Ballot. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The average. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Democrats enjoyed 42 percent support in the congressional generic ballot on January 23, compared to 43. 46%. . Biden. In November 2023, we made. The first, from our colleagues at ABC News and The Washington Post, showed Republicans 1 point ahead on the generic ballot among registered voters but 2 points ahead among likely voters, making. 9 percentage points (48. 5 percentage points, but actually won the national vote by only 1. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. SEIU is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. 3 percentage points (48. V. RCP Poll Average. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. And the generic ballot. 0 percent to 42. Evergreen Principles (super PAC) Evergreen Principles (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Our average gave Democrats an 8. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 3. For instance, if Democrats have gained a net of 5 percentage points on the generic ballot since a certain district was polled, the model will adjust the poll upward toward the Democratic candidate. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. Filed under 2020 Election. This isn’t a popularity contest™. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. 1 Nov. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. We use numbers to express uncertainty. And in 2014, the difference between the two numbers was impossible to ignore. 5 percent to 40. Filter by poll type or state. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Trump and three generic third-party candidates. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. How this works. Biden’s performance across 40 nonpartisan House polls taken since. Josh Christenson. 48. There’s been huge variation from survey to survey on the generic. Wisconsin +2 dem. +25. Biden up 7 points over Trump in 2024 popular vote: poll. Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 6 hours ago · A court ruled last week that previous spending violated constitutional limits on deficits, forcing Scholz’s government to put off a final vote on next year’s spending plan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Democrats (D) +7. Trump maintains a 10-point lead among White voters, while trailing Biden. Download. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. Latest Forecast Weekly email Podcast YouTube. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Trump. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. America's Voice is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 5Download the data. 4 points. Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. 2 percentage points (45. Colorado officials have urged a final decision by Jan. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. Generic Congressional BallotUS News Reporter. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 2010: R+3. 5 percent to 42. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Modi’s government wants to ensure adequate supplies at home and to cool price increases, said B. This 3-part map lets you view the current composition of the U. Biden vs. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Aug. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. A: We collect polls for presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections in addition to presidential approval polls, vice presidential approval polls and congressional generic. 3%. Kuster UNH Kuster 53, Burns 45 Kuster +8 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Sep. SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- The wife of a northwestern Iowa county supervisor was convicted Tuesday of a scheme to stuff the ballot box in her husband’s unsuccessful race for. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Emerson. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The generic congressional vote question does not. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Nov. My thinking/question is this: 538 generic ballot tracker shows Dems up 1. Poll type. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Governor, Kentucky, 2023. We’ve collected 162 generic ballot polls so far. Rasmussen has the Democrats losing the generic ballot by 9 points (and has had similar numbers for awhile). Download the data. 7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8. 6 percent). Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe,. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In 2010, the Republican turnout advantage amounted to the equivalent of 6 percentage points, meaning a tie on the generic ballot among registered voters translated into a six-point Republican lead. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 22, 2023. Filed under 2020 Election. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 5 percent for Republicans. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. The generic ballot and President Biden’s approval rating have also not shifted very much. S. . 2 point swing. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Trump. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 5 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. In fact, in August of 2014, it. 3. A bleak Senate outlook for Democrats just got bleaker. 7-10. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. And as it happens there are basically 400 days to go until Election Day 2010, and here’s how the generic congressional ballot for 2009-2010 looks so far: If you visualize in your mind the gap. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. 8 percentage points, is too aggressive and will usually. On average, Democrats trailed by. 7. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 0 points. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. RealClearPolitics - 2024 Generic Congressional Vote. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. Rasmussen. Download. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 43. But as of this week, after tying. 9. Download the data. 11-13. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 1/20 - 1/21. Thanks for joining us!Download the data. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. 6 percent to 43. 3 . Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 2024 Election. RCP Poll Average. 4 points. Wednesday’s poll also showed Democrats leading generic down-ballot races 47% to 42% with Trump at the top of the. /Grinnell College poll conducted Oct. Nov 21 ABC News Photo Illustration The Utah 2nd District special election could be closer than you think Democrats are waging a strong campaign in this solid-red district. 5 points. 43. But those days are over. Biden. 47%. The last key point is that the generic ballot can be somewhat misleading when it comes to the eventual outcomes — because history shows Democrats need to be leading on that measure to keep their. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. 5 The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. For example, if 44 percent of voters favored Democrats and 35 percent. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. 6 percent to 43. voters in 2024, much of their. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Download the data. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. November 24, 2023 at 12:59 PM PST. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Trump 44, Biden 36, Kennedy 21 Trump +8 General Election. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Staff writer. No Labels wants to be on the ballot in all 50 states. 4% Democrat. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 45. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020. 0 10 20 30 40 50% Election Day Nov. Download the data. 9 percentage points (44. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Generic ballot. 1% Election Day Nov. ' 2022 Congressional elections, generic ballot polling provides a look at the overall political environment. 500 LV. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 45. There is no shortage of people running for president in 2024. John Anthony Castro, a longshot Republican 2024 presidential candidate, filed a complaint in a New Hampshire court arguing that Trump should be banned from the state's primary ballot while arguing. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 45. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association,. S. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. The latest with redistricting. Nov. Elliott Morris. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. Trump. Download the data. 48. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 5. FiveThirtyEight updated their generic congressional ballot average on Wednesday to show Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Ballotpedia includes comprehensive election information for the largest 100 cities by population, as well as all state legislative, statewide, and congressional races across the nation. In some ways, splits on all these indicators probably shouldn’t be a surprise. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 3 percent to 41. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. New Hampshire 1st District - Leavitt vs. Split Ticket’s calculations showed an R+1. Generic ballot; Trump approval; Search for a race or candidate + Back to the national overview. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. avg. In that election, the GOP flipped control of the House with a. Murray. News. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. As recently as the 1970s, a voter’s preferences were only loosely moored to partisanship. 1 Oct. Trump. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters in the United States from July 5-7, 2022. This owes to both the House and Senate maps being tilted against them . 2024 Presidential Ballot Access . November 16, 2023, 7:48 AM 2:10 What can the election earlier this month tell us about the 2024 ele. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Wilson. Download the data. 1d. Generic ballot polling average. 11-13. Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Someone suggested that the difference is in how the question is asked. Generic ballot, 2022. On average, Democrats trailed by. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Trump. Murray. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Joe Biden Approval. ”. S. Download the data. Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. and the generic ballot test, in particular. With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. Every state in the union now has a new congressional map in place for the 2022 election. But republican results seem to have more variance. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Sixty-two percent of generic-ballot undecideds disapprove. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The initial 2024 ballot shows Biden holding a two-point lead over Trump in a hypothetical rematch, with 43% for Biden, 41% for Trump, 11% undecided, and 5% of voters saying they will probably not vote in the 2024 election. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. A week ago. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. ”. For example, here are the 2020 results. 68%. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. November 22, 2023, 5:06 PM. 68%. On Election Day 2022, Republicans had a 1. Not running. West Siena Biden 37, Trump 28, Kennedy 18, West 5 Biden +9 Michigan: Trump vs. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 59. Republicans (R) +2. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Democrats Republicans; Likely: Leans: Toss up: Likely: Leans: Toss up: Date State Prev ious Status New Status Dems Toss Ups GOP Pick-Up Range Avg Gain Average Gain; 11/6: NY19 NY19: Leans GOPMarch 28-April 5. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, they will win the election outright. They Didn’t Start Voting Differently From Men Until 1980. “Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers,” Axios (. Download the data. The last presidential election featured one of the more accurate sets of early polls for this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 46. The prediction is that the Republicans will win 47% of the representatives in the Electoral College (253), and the Democrats. Read More The 2023. Final Lite version of FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate and gubernatorial forecasts as of Nov. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. S. University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science, WCVB-TV (Boston) Trump. Download. The polling tracker lets you do a lot with our huge database of polls, but for some polling nerds, it isn’t enough.